Publications by Type: Miscellaneous

This paper provides a formal model of endogenous border formation and of choice of defense spending in a world with international conflict. The model is consistent with three observations. First, break–up of countries should follow a reduction in the likelihood of international conflicts. Second, the number of regional conflicts between smaller countries may increase as a result of the break–up of larger countries. Third, the size of the peace dividend — i.e., the reduction in the defense spending in a more peaceful world — is limited by the process of country break–up.

Scholarly "realism" has been the dominant approach in the study of U.S. – Mexican relations; it has portrayed the Mexican government as a unified and calculating rational actor. Nonetheless, much of the reality of U.S. – Mexican relations has never been explained well by that approach. In this work, I assess the utility of other explanations for understanding U.S. – Mexican relations in the 1980's and 1990's. In particular, I consider the contributions of approaches based on international regimes and institutions, "games" played at multiple levels, and signaling a behavior.

This paper examines the hypothesis that the superior return to so–called value stocks is the result of expectational errors made by investors. We study stock price reactions around earnings announcements for value and glamour stocks over a 5 year period after portfolio formation. The announcemen returns suggest that a significant portion of the return difference between value and glamour stocks is attributable to earnings surprises that are systematically more positive for value stocks. The evidence is inconsistent with a risk–based explanation for the return differential.

Proposal for avoiding conflict between China and Taiwan.

Recent research on the inter–war years points to the importance of international economic policies for the macroeconomics of the 1920s and 1930s. The chapters, in the second section of this volume are no exception. Tarmo Haavisto and Lars Jonung show how the deflation associate with Sweden's return to its pre–war gold parity in 1922 was associated with a severe contraction of output, but how Finland escaped those costs by accepting as permanent the depreciation of its currency. Isabelle Cassiers shows for Belgium and France how the decision to remain on the gold standard explains the depth and duration of the Great Depression in both countries, and how Belgium's abandonment of convertibility in March 1935, a year and a half in advance of France, accounts for the precocious recovery (by French standards) of its exports and production. Jean–Charles Asselain and Alain Plessis compare France not with its northern European neighbor, Belgium, but with its hot–blooded Mediterranean rival, Italy. While the very different structures of the French and Italian economies render the comparison problematic, once again international monetary policies emerge as key for understanding the course of the Depression...

This paper discusses recent theoretcial and empirical work on the interactions between growth and business cycles. One may distinguish two very differenct types of approaches to the problem of the influence of macroeconomic fluctuations on long–run growth.

Draft of a trilateral study on the Kurils dispute and options for normalizing relations in the Asia–Pacific region.

Allison, Graham T., and Grigory Yavlinsky. Window of Opportunity: Joint Program for Western Cooperation in the Soviet Transformation to Democracy and the Market Economy. SDI Project, 1991. (Final draft report of the Joint Working Group on Western Cooperation in the Soviet Transformation to Democracy and the Market Economy.) (ordering information)