@newspaperarticle {67831,
	title = {Crashing the Tea Party},
	year = {2011},
	month = {Aug 18, 2011},
	publisher = {New York Times},
	abstract = {Given how much sway the Tea Party has among Republicans in Congress and 
those seeking the Republican presidential nomination, one might think 
the Tea Party is redefining mainstream American politics.   
But in fact the Tea Party is increasingly swimming against the tide of 
public opinion: among most Americans, even before the furor over the 
debt limit, its brand was becoming toxic. To embrace the Tea Party 
carries great political risk for Republicans, but perhaps not for the 
reason you might think.        
Polls show that disapproval of the Tea Party is climbing. In April 2010,
 a New York Times/CBS News survey found that 18 percent of Americans had
 an unfavorable opinion of it, 21 percent had a favorable opinion and 46
 percent had not heard enough. Now, 14 months later, Tea Party supporters have slipped to 20 percent, while their opponents have more than doubled, to 40 percent.        
Of course, politicians of all stripes are not faring well among the 
public these days. But in data we have recently collected, the Tea Party
 ranks lower than any of the 23 other groups we asked about{\textemdash}lower than
 both Republicans and Democrats. It is even less popular than much 
maligned groups like {\textquotedblleft}atheists{\textquotedblright} and {\textquotedblleft}Muslims.{\textquotedblright} Interestingly, one group 
that approaches it in unpopularity is the Christian Right.        
The strange thing is that over the last five years, Americans have moved
 in an economically conservative direction: they are more likely to 
favor smaller government, to oppose redistribution of income and to 
favor private charities over government to aid the poor. While none of 
these opinions are held by a majority of Americans, the trends would 
seem to favor the Tea Party. So why are its negatives so high? To find 
out, we need to examine what kinds of people actually support it.       
Beginning in 2006 we interviewed a representative sample of 3,000 
Americans as part of our continuing research into national political 
attitudes, and we returned to interview many of the same people again 
this summer. As a result, we can look at what people told us, long 
before there was a Tea Party, to predict who would become a Tea Party 
supporter five years later. We can also account for multiple influences 
simultaneously{\textemdash}isolating the impact of one factor while holding others
 constant.        
Our analysis casts doubt on the Tea Party{\textquoteright}s {\textquotedblleft}origin story.{\textquotedblright} Early on, 
Tea Partiers were often described as nonpartisan political neophytes. 
Actually, the Tea Party{\textquoteright}s supporters today were highly partisan 
Republicans long before the Tea Party was born, and were more likely 
than others to have contacted government officials. In fact, past 
Republican affiliation is the single strongest predictor of Tea Party 
support today.        
What{\textquoteright}s more, contrary to some accounts, the Tea Party is not a creature 
of the Great Recession. Many Americans have suffered in the last four 
years, but they are no more likely than anyone else to support the Tea 
Party. And while the public image of the Tea Party focuses on a desire 
to shrink government, concern over big government is hardly the only or 
even the most important predictor of Tea Party support among voters.    
    
So what do Tea Partiers have in common? They are overwhelmingly white, 
but even compared to other white Republicans, they had a low regard for 
immigrants and blacks long before Barack Obama was president, and they 
still do.        
More important, they were disproportionately social conservatives in 
2006{\textemdash}opposing abortion, for example{\textemdash}and still are today. Next to 
being a Republican, the strongest predictor of being a Tea Party 
supporter today was a desire, back in 2006, to see religion play a 
prominent role in politics. And Tea Partiers continue to hold these 
views: they seek {\textquotedblleft}deeply religious{\textquotedblright} elected officials, approve of 
religious leaders{\textquoteright} engaging in politics and want religion brought into 
political debates. The Tea Party{\textquoteright}s generals may say their overriding 
concern is a smaller government, but not their rank and file, who are 
more concerned about putting God in government.        
This inclination among the Tea Party faithful to mix religion and 
politics explains their support for Representative Michele Bachmann of 
Minnesota and Gov. Rick Perry of Texas. Their appeal to Tea Partiers 
lies less in what they say about the budget or taxes, and more in their 
overt use of religious language and imagery, including Mrs. Bachmann{\textquoteright}s 
lengthy prayers at campaign stops and Mr. Perry{\textquoteright}s prayer rally in 
Houston.        
Yet it is precisely this infusion of religion into politics that most 
Americans increasingly oppose. While over the last five years Americans 
have become slightly more conservative economically, they have swung 
even further in opposition to mingling religion and politics. It thus 
makes sense that the Tea Party ranks alongside the Christian Right in 
unpopularity.        
On everything but the size of government, Tea Party supporters are 
increasingly out of step with most Americans, even many Republicans. 
Indeed, at the opposite end of the ideological spectrum, today{\textquoteright}s Tea 
Party parallels the anti-Vietnam War movement which rallied behind 
George S. McGovern in 1972. The McGovernite activists brought energy, 
but also stridency, to the Democratic Party{\textemdash}repelling moderate voters 
and damaging the Democratic brand for a generation. By embracing the Tea
 Party, Republicans risk repeating history.        },
	url = {http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/17/opinion/crashing-the-tea-party.html?_r=1},
	author = {David E. Campbell and Putnam, Robert D.}
}
