Publications by Author: Cooper, Richard N.

2010

The proposal discussed in this paper is to levy a common charge on all emissions of greenhouse gases, worldwide. All countries would be covered in principle, but the proposal could be implemented with a much smaller number of countries, provided they covered most of the emissions. While all greenhouse gases should in principle be covered, this paper will address mainly carbon dioxide, quantitatively the most important greenhouse gas; extensions to other greenhouse gases could be made with little or (in the case of methane) much difficulty. The charge would be internationally adjusted from time to time, and each country would collect and keep the revenue it generated.

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Cooper, Richard N. 2010. “Europe’s Emissions Trading System”. Abstract

This paper describes and evaluates the system for trading CO2 emission permits introduced by the European Union to encourage the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to help abate climate change. This system represents a live example of a functioning trading system under the so-called cap-and-trade approach to limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Data are fully available for only one year (2008) of the fully functioning system, and that year was influenced by a sharp economic recession in the final months of the year, making evaluation difficult. Preliminary analysis suggests, however, that the trading system made only a limited contribution to reducing CO2 emissions.

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2008

US objectives during the Cold War were to prevent Soviet attacks on the United States and its allies and to prevent the spread of communism as a political and economic system to other countries, whether by force or by threat, subversion, persuasion, or bribery. The principal instrument to prevent attack was an extensive build-up of defensive and retaliatory military forces, combined with political and military alliances that extended US protection to other countries in exchange for their engagement and support. The principal instruments for preventing the spread of communism by non-military means involved building an international economic system conducive to economic prosperity; engaging in persuasion, providing incentives, and occasionally imposing economic sanctions; and, not least, promoting a robust US economy that could serve as a stimulant to others and as a beacon for the benefits of a free, enterprise-based, market-oriented economy.

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2007
Cooper, Richard N. 2007. “Living with Global Imbalances”. Abstract

The U.S. economy and the economies of the rest of the world intersect through international transactions. These have received more attention in the Brookings Papers, although again largely with a U.S. focus. I will address this intersection with respect to the large global imbalances that exist today, although I will deviate from the usual practice here by adopting a rest-of-the-world rather than a U.S. perspective.

In this brief paper I want to cast doubt on two related propositions that are widely accepted as truths: that Americans save too little, and that the U.S. current account deficit is unsustainably large, risking a disorderly adjustment that would be damaging to the world economy in the relatively near (but usually unspecified) future. These remarks should not be treated as new truths, but as plausible alternative hypotheses about how the world works these days, how we reached our current circumstances, and what the future may bring.

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Also Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2:2007.

2006

Axel Michaelowa’s paper addresses how the world should proceed in a post Kyoto Protocol period, which begins in 2013 but must be agreed before then. It is informative, ingenious, and constructive. But its proposal for extending emissions targets and enlarging the number of countries to which they apply is deeply flawed, partly by carrying forward the flaws inherent in the Kyoto Protocol (KP hereafter). This comment will address the intellectual framework of the proposal, identify three fatal flaws (all inherent in the Kyoto Protocol), and suggest an alternative approach.

Michaelowa explicitly rejects a cost-benefit approach to public policy in dealing with global climate change in favor of an absolute (indicative) ceiling to atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, mainly but not exclusively carbon dioxide. This approach implies an extreme degree of risk aversion with respect to climate change – any cost to avoiding it is worth the price—about which every economist should be skeptical.

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China and India are similar in many ways. Both are populous, physically large, socially diversified, economically poor countries. In 1978 they had roughly the same per capita GDP in terms of purchasing power parity (Maddison, p.304). But their labor forces have very different characteristics. A significantly higher fraction of China’s population is in economic employment, China is significantly more urbanized, less of China’s labor force is in agriculture, and in rural areas a significantly higher fraction of rural employment is non-agricultural. Population growth in both countries has declined significantly in recent decades, but the decline has been markedly sharper in China. India has significantly greater protection against imports than China, although it has lowered non-agricultural tariffs in recent years. India is less hospitable to foreign direct investment (FDI) than is China, and is more dependent on official foreign assistance. By 2000 India’s real per capita GDP had doubled from 1978; China’s had nearly quadrupled. These differences, and others, influence the degree of integration of these economies into the world economy, and in particular the role that their labor forces play in the world economy.

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2004

With the end of the Cold War, and until 9/11/01, many academic and journalistic pundits averred that military power was no longer of great importance, that the future lay with economic power. The claim was made that the United States was an "economic superpower," and therefore would continue to be the world's dominant power in any case. Does this term mean anything other than "biggest national economy?" If so, what exactly does it mean? This paper will discuss the concept of economic power, and then apply the concept to the proposal of John Mearsheimer, the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science pat the University of Chicago, that on strategic (balance of power) grounds the United States should take steps to slow down the economic growth of China.

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Working Paper 04–02, Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University, April 2004. 

Cooper, Richard N. 2004. “A Glimpse of 2020”. Abstract

To help get our bearings in a complex and ever-changing world, it is useful to ask what the world will look like in a decade or two. Forecasting the future accurately is of course impossible. And of course we cannot forecast surprises, by definition. But by projecting known trends and tendencies, it is possible to say a remarkable amount about the broad outlines of the world one to two decades from now. In particular, we can identify with high confidence four factors, which we hardly notice from year to year, but which accumulate relentlessly over time, such that by 2020 they will have profoundly transformed the world as we now know it. The four factors are population growth, growth in per capita income, increasing international mobility among national firms and individuals, made possible and driven by both technological changes in transportation and communication, and the aging of existing political leaders (as well as everyone else).

For concreteness, I will focus below on the year 2020. The year should not be taken literally, but as the rough mid–point of one to two decades from now. That looks beyond the immediate issues of today, and allows the cumulation of small annual changes in the trends mentioned above. But it is also a comprehensible distance into the future, the same distance as the year 1988, which many adults can remember, is into the past.

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1999

This paper surveys the issues involved in cooperation among nations to slow down the climate change which many believe the extensive consumption of fossil fuels and other aspects of modern life are generating, through emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide. It addresses the possible social and economic impacts of global warming, the elements involved in evaluating the pros and cons of taking steps to reduce those impacts, and the issues involved in engaging most of the world's states, with diverse economic circumstances, in a cooperative endeavor to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It expresses doubts about the efficacy of a global approach based on national emission targets, such as those set by the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, and favors instead mutually agreed actions, focused on a common emissions tax.

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Cooper, Richard. "International Approaches to Global Climate Change." Working Paper 99–03, Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University, 1999.


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1997
Cooper, Richard N. 1997. “Key Currencies After the Euro”. Abstract

This paper will address various issues. It first takes up the reasons why national currencies might be used internationally, and provides some data on the international role of currencies today, and on their recent evolution. It then takes up the factors suggesting that the euro will emerge as an international currency, possibly displacing the dollar. I then offer reasons for believing that major displacement of the dollar will not take place, at least for several decades. Next it addresses what the consequences might be if that forecast proves to be incorrect. A concluding section touches on probably more important issues that are not discussed in detail in the paper.

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Working Paper 98–03, Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University, 1998.