"The Volatility Curse"
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Daniela Campello, Professor of Politics, FGV/EBAPE, Rio de Janeiro.
Cesar Zucco, Professor, FGV/EBAPE, Rio de Janeiro.
Robert Kaufman, Distinguished Professor of Political Science, Rutgers University
Frances Hagopian, Faculty Associate. Jorge Paulo Lemann Senior Lecturer on Government, Department of Government, Harvard University.
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When does economic voting function as a mechanism of democratic accountability, and when does it fail to do so? In their new book, The Volatility Curse, Campello and Zucco show that in Latin American countries that are dependent on commodity exports and inflows of foreign capital, governments may lose popular support and be punished by voters for economic outcomes that are beyond their control. Because politicians are aware of these misattribution patterns and able to anticipate their electoral prospects well before elections, they are more likely to shirk, waste resources, and engage in corruption than to maximize voter welfare, as anticipated by economic voting theories.