Publications

2013
Frankel, Jeffrey. 2013. On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality. Journal of Development Economics 100, no. 1: 32-47. WebsiteAbstract
In the past, industrial countries have tended to pursue countercyclical or, at worst, acyclical fiscal policy. In sharp contrast, emerging and developing countries have followed procyclical fiscal policy, thus exacerbating the underlying business cycle. We show that, over the last decade, about a third of the developing world has been able to escape the procyclicality trap and actually become countercyclical. We then focus on the role played by the quality of institutions, which appears to be a key determinant of a country’s ability to graduate. We show that, even after controlling for the endogeneity of institutions and other determinants of fiscal procyclicality, there is a causal link running from stronger institutions to less procyclical or more countercyclical fiscal policy.
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Frankel, Jeffrey. 2013. Over-optimistic Official Forecasts and Fiscal Rules in the Eurozone. Review of World Economy 149, no. 2: 247-272. DOIAbstract
Eurozone members are supposedly constrained by the fiscal caps of the Stability and Growth Pact. Yet ever since the birth of the euro, members have postponed painful adjustment. Wishful thinking has played an important role in this failure. We find that governments' forecasts are biased in the optimistic direction, especially during booms. Eurozone governments are especially over-optimistic when the budget deficit is over the 3% cap at the time the forecasts are made. Those exceeding this cap systematically but falsely forecast a rapid future improvement. The new fiscal compact among the euro countries is supposed to make budget rules more binding by putting them into laws and constitutions at the national level. But biased forecasts can defeat budget rules. What is the record in Europe with national rules? The bias is less among eurozone countries that have adopted certain rules at the national level, particularly creating an independent fiscal institution that provides independent forecasts.
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Remes, Jacob. 2013. Quebec Could Ban Government Employees From Wearing Religious Items. RT America. Watch the Video Abstract
This week, the Canadian province of Quebec announced controversial, wide-ranging legislation keeping religion out of the workplace, called the "Quebec Charter of Values." The measure would include a ban on state employees from wearing overt religious symbols, including Muslim hijabs (headscarves), Jewish yarmulkes (skullcaps) or Christian crosses. RT's Ameera David talks to Jacob Remes, a research fellow at Harvard University's Canada Program, about the debate on religious freedom versus secularism in Quebec.
Ramanna, Karthik. 2013. The International Politics of IFRS Harmonization. Accounting, Economics and Law 3, no. 2: 1-46. WebsiteAbstract
The globalization of accounting standards as seen through the proliferation of IFRS worldwide is one of the most important developments in corporate governance over the last decade. I offer an analysis of some international political dynamics of countries’ IFRS harmonization decisions. The analysis is based on field studies in three jurisdictions: Canada, China, and India. Across these jurisdictions, I first describe unique elements of domestic political economies that are shaping IFRS policies. Then, I inductively isolate two principal dimensions that can be used to characterize the jurisdictions’ IFRS responses: proximity to existing political powers at the IASB; and own potential political power at the IASB. Based on how countries are classified along these dimensions, I offer predictions, ceteris paribus, on countries’ IFRS harmonization strategies. The analysis and framework in this paper can help broaden the understanding of accounting’s globalization.
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Campante, Felipe, and Daniel Hojman. 2013. Media and Polarization: Evidence from the Introduction of Broadcast TV in the United States. Journal of Public Economics 100: 79-92. WebsiteAbstract
This paper sheds light on the links between media and political polarization by looking at the introduction of broadcast TV in the US. We provide causal evidence that broadcast TV decreased the ideological extremism of US representatives. We then show that exposure to radio was associated with decreased polarization. We interpret this result using a simple framework that identifies two channels linking media environment to politicians' incentives to polarize. First, the ideology effect: changes in the media environment may a ffect the distribution of citizens' ideological views, with politicians moving their positions accordingly. Second, the motivation e ffect: the media may a ffect citizens' political motivation, changing the ideological composition of the electorate and thereby impacting elite polarization while mass polarization is unchanged. The evidence on polarization and turnout is consistent with a prevalence of the ideology e ffect in the case of TV, as both of them decreased. Increased turnout associated with radio exposure is in turn consistent with a role for the motivation eff ect.
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Orkaby, Asher. 2013. Forgotten Gas Attacks in Yemen Haunt Syria Crisis. Bloomberg. Website
Gidron, Noam, and Bart Bonikowski. 2013. Varieties of Populism: Literature Review and Research Agenda.Abstract
In recent years, populism has attracted considerable interest from social scientists and political commentators (Panizza 2005, Bale et al. 2011, Mudde 2004, Berezin 2013, Rovira Kaltwasser 2013), despite the fact that, “[t]he mercurial nature of populism has often exasperated those attempting to take it seriously” (Stanley 2008, 108). Indeed, the term ‘populism’ is both widely used and widely contested (Roberts 2006; Barr 2009).1 It has been defined based on political, economic, social, and discursive features (Weyland 2001, 1) and analyzed from myriad theoretical perspectives—including structuralism, post-structuralism, modernization theory, social movement theory, party politics, political psychology, political economy, and democratic theory—and a variety of methodological approaches, such as archival research, discourse analysis, and formal modeling (Acemoglu et al. 2011, Ionescu and Gellner 1969, Canovan 2002, Hawkins 2009, Goodliffe 2012, Postel 2007). As observed by Wiles, “to each his own definition of populism, according to the academic axe he grinds” (Wiles, in Iunescu and Gellner 1969, p. 166).
gidron_bonikowski_populismlitreview_2013.pdf
Dryden-Peterson, Sarah, and Maysa Jalbout. 2013. Back to School: Even in Syria, Education Is About Hope. Huffington Post. Website
Cohen, Dara Kay. 2013. Female Combatants and the Perpetration of Violence: Wartime Rape in the Sierra Leone Civil War. World Politics 65, no. 3: 383–415. World Politics (DOI)Abstract
Much of the current scholarship on wartime violence, including studies of the combatants themselves, assumes that women are victims and men are perpetrators. However, there is an increasing awareness that women in armed groups may be active fighters who function as more than just cooks, cleaners, and sexual slaves. In this article, the author focuses on the involvement of female fighters in a form of violence that is commonly thought to be perpetrated only by men: the wartime rape of noncombatants. Using original interviews with ex-combatants and newly available survey data, she finds that in the Sierra Leone civil war, female combatants were participants in the widespread conflict-related violence, including gang rape. A growing body of evidence from other conflicts suggests that Sierra Leone is not an anomaly and that women likely engage in conflict-related violence, including sexual violence, more often than is currently believed. Many standard interpretations of wartime rape are undermined by the participation of female perpetrators. To explain the involvement of women in wartime rape, the author argues that women in armed group units face similar pressure to that faced by their male counterparts to participate in gang rape. The study has broad implications for future avenues of research on wartime violence, as well as for policy.
Female Combatants and the Perpetration of Violence: Wartime Rape in the Sierra Leone Civil War
Cohen, Dara Kay. 2013. Explaining Rape during Civil War: Cross-National Evidence (1980–2009). American Political Science Review 107, no. 3: 461–477. American Political Science Review (DOI)Abstract
Why do some armed groups commit massive wartime rape, whereas others never do? Using an original dataset, I describe the substantial variation in rape by armed actors during recent civil wars and test a series of competing causal explanations. I find evidence that the recruitment mechanism is associated with the occurrence of wartime rape. Specifically, the findings support an argument about wartime rape as a method of socialization, in which armed groups that recruit by force—through abduction or pressganging—use rape to create unit cohesion. State weakness and insurgent contraband funding are also associated with increased wartime rape by rebel groups. I examine observable implications of the argument in a brief case study of the Sierra Leone civil war. The results challenge common explanations for wartime rape, with important implications for scholars and policy makers.
Explaining Rape during Civil War: Cross-National Evidence (1980–2009)
Baum, Matthew, and John Wihbey. 2013. Intervention in Syria, the news media and public opinion: Research chat with Harvard’s Matt Baum. The Journalist's Resources. Website
Kremer, Michael R, and Christopher M Snyder. 2013. When Is Prevention More Profitable than Cure? The Impact of Time-Varying Consumer Heterogeneity.Abstract
We argue that in pharmaceutical markets, variation in the arrival time of consumer heterogeneity creates differences between a producer’s ability to extract consumer surplus with preventives and treatments, potentially distorting R&D decisions. If consumers vary only in disease risk, revenue from treatments—sold after the disease is contracted, when disease risk is no longer a source of private information—always exceeds revenue from preventives. The revenue ratio can be arbitrarily high for sufficiently skewed distributions of disease risk. Under some circumstances, heterogeneity in harm from a disease, learned after a disease is contracted, can lead revenue from a treatment to exceed revenue from a preventative. Calibrations suggest that skewness in the US distribution of HIV risk would lead firms to earn only half the revenue from a vaccine as from a drug. Empirical tests are consistent with the predictions of the model that vaccines are less likely to be developed for diseases with substantial disease-risk heterogeneity.
Outsiders No More? Models of Immigrant Political Incorporation
Hochschild, Jennifer L, Jacqueline Chattopadhyay, Claudine Gay, and Michael Jones-Correa. 2013. Outsiders No More? Models of Immigrant Political Incorporation. Oxford University Press. WebsiteAbstract
Outsiders No More? brings together a multidisciplinary group of scholars to consider pathways by which immigrants may be incorporated into the political processes of western democracies. At a time when immigrants are increasingly significant political actors in many democratic polities, this volume makes a timely and valuable intervention by pushing researchers to articulate causal dynamics, provide clear definitions and measurable concepts, and develop testable hypotheses. By including historians, sociologists, and political scientists, by ranging across North America and Western Europe, by addressing successful and failed incorporative efforts, this handbook offers guides for anyone seeking to develop a dynamic, unified, and supple model of immigrant political incorporation.
Fujihira, Shinju. 2013. Can Japanese Democracy Cope with China’s Rise?. Wilson Center. WebsiteAbstract
The contemporary standoff over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands threatens to exacerbate Japan-China relations in the long run. Despite their disagreement over the islands’ sovereignty, the two governments had successfully depoliticized the issue for nearly four decades since their diplomatic normalization in 1972. The islands issue became politicized after the collision between a Chinese trawler and the Japan Coast Guard in 2010, and has become increasingly militarized after the Japanese government’s purchase of three of the five islands from their private owner in 2012. China has boosted its civilian and military presence in maritime and airspace around the islands, confronting their Japanese counterparts regularly and raising the risk of an armed conflict which potentially involves the United States. What caused the intense politicization and increasing militarization of the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands dispute? What are the pragmatic steps which the two governments can take to depoliticize, demilitarize, and deescalate the current situation?
Hall, Peter A. 2013. Anatomy of the Euro Crisis. Harvard Magazine. Website
Mylonas, Harris. 2013. Wither Nation-Building?. e-International Relations. Website
Presidential Leadership and the Creation of the American Era
Nye, Joseph S., Jr. 2013. Presidential Leadership and the Creation of the American Era. Princeton University Press. WebsiteAbstract
This book examines the foreign policy decisions of the presidents who presided over the most critical phases of America's rise to world primacy in the twentieth century, and assesses the effectiveness and ethics of their choices. Joseph Nye, who was ranked as one of Foreign Policy magazine's 100 Top Global Thinkers, reveals how some presidents tried with varying success to forge a new international order while others sought to manage America's existing position. Taking readers from Theodore Roosevelt's bid to insert America into the global balance of power to George H. W. Bush's Gulf War in the early 1990s, Nye compares how Roosevelt, William Howard Taft, and Woodrow Wilson responded to America's growing power and failed in their attempts to create a new order. He looks at Franklin D. Roosevelt's efforts to escape isolationism before World War II, and at Harry Truman's successful transformation of Roosevelt's grand strategy into a permanent overseas presence of American troops at the dawn of the Cold War. He describes Dwight Eisenhower's crucial role in consolidating containment, and compares the roles of Ronald Reagan and Bush in ending the Cold War and establishing the unipolar world in which American power reached its zenith.The book shows how transformational presidents like Wilson and Reagan changed how America sees the world, but argues that transactional presidents like Eisenhower and the elder Bush were sometimes more effective and ethical. It also draws important lessons for today's uncertain world, in which presidential decision making is more critical than ever.
Nye, Joseph S., Jr. 2013. Do Presidents Really Steer Foreign Policy?. The Atlantic. Website
Sen, Amartya. 2013. Why India Trails China. New York Times. Website
Nye, Joseph S. 2013. Ethiopia: Brics Without Mortar. All Africa. Website